Donald Trump’s Republican convention bounce was pilfered by Kamala Harris. Harris is gaining ground. explained by our polling expert. 

Donald Trump’s Republican convention bounce was pilfered by Kamala Harris. Harris is gaining ground. explained by our polling expert.

Donald Trump’s Republican convention bounce was pilfered by Kamala Harris.

Recent polling ahead of this week’s Democratic convention in Chicago indicates that the vice president will enter not only with momentum but also with a slight advantage over Trump nationally and in the majority of crucial battleground states. This represents a significant shift from the dire circumstances that President Joe Biden faced just four weeks prior to withdrawing from the race.

Only on Sunday, Harris led by six points among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, according to a new national poll by ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos, while Harris led by three points in a CBS News/YouGov survey.

In addition, Harris has managed to gain a slight advantage in enough swing states to give her an Electoral College majority, which is extremely concerning for Trump in the final few weeks of the campaign. In four state surveys conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, the vice president led by at least 4 points. If Harris won the remaining swing states, she would still have enough electoral votes to win the presidency. These states are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Even after battling to regain his footing against a new foe, the former president is still very much in reach. The most recent FiveThirtyEight polling averages show that, should he win all of the states where he now leads Harris in polling averages, Trump would only need to flip one of the three “blue wall” states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.

However, Harris’ ascent is probably even more noteworthy for its timing than for its size and speed. On July 21, a mere eight days following the murder attempt on the former president, and less than seventy-two hours following Trump’s speech of acceptance at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, she entered the race for president. Following the massacre and his own convention, Republicans had united around Trump, who looked to be in a far stronger position than Biden, his opponent at the moment.

Summer campaigns are usually the most volatile, with the party not in the White House getting a polling boost after its convention, which is traditionally held first. Then, the party of the president reacts with a comparable surge that typically offsets the preceding change

But since the Republican convention ended last month, Harris has been in the driver’s seat in this particular situation. Although some Republicans are bracing for the possibility that Harris will have a larger lead on Labor Day than she does now, it is far from certain that Harris will continue to rise through the end of August. However, adding a convention bump on top of that could position Harris as a significant favorite in the race.